The World is Changing, Are You Ready?

Technology is changing the world, but few recognize how fast it is changing, and that the change is accelerating exponentially.

Some of this change is described in Bold, a book by Peter H. DIamandis and Steven Kotler. They describe a process where a technology is initially digitized and then remains hidden for several years. They call this the deceptive phase. The technology is actually being improved during this phase, but not enough to attract widespread interest. Often, the improvement follows Moore’s Law, with a doubling of  performance (and reduction in cost) every one to two years.6D Exponential Framework

Eventually, the price and performance improves to a point that is commercially viable. It becomes disruptive, as entrepreneurs use it to disrupt the existing markets. The existing companies in the market using avoid the technology because they are invested in the current technology and do not want to kill the goose with the golden egg.

The next step is to demonitize the technology. No, that does not mean “make a demon of it”, although the existing market leaders will try. It means make it free for the user, destroying the current income streams. Demonitization can still be profitable. Look at Google. Look at the music business. Your free product can generate marketing data for targeted ads. It can lead to premium or pro versions. Look at Sketchup!

The product becomes dematerialized as it gets smaller and smaller and may eventually disappear. Anyone with a large capital investment is at risk. Any process that requires many people can be improved.

When Navy ship communication was first digitized, a modem filled a room with many racks of equipment. Soon, it became a single rack with several shelves. Then a single shelf with several electronic boxes. Then a single box. Then a single card. Then a single processor. Eventually, it became nothing but software that shared a processor with a display. The huge physical design effort with testing, manufacturing, installation, spares, and maintenance support all disappeared into a single software subroutine. And the cost moved from many millions of dollars to an insignificant Not Separately Priced item.

As the costs drop further, the technology becomes available for everyone. It becomes democratized. Everyone can use it. It becomes available on the most basic cell phones.

When Powerpoint and the laser printer became available, our one location (a small part of a large defense contractor) had 113 people in the graphics department. Within a couple of years the graphics department consisted of one contract lady who only came in on alternate Friday afternoons. Eventually, we even dropped her contract.

Here are some examples of the 6D Framework:

  • Photographic chemicals, film, cameras, developing, printing ⇒ cell phones, Instagram, and Youtube
  • Hotel industry ⇒ Airbnb
  • Taxis ⇒ Uber and Lyft ⇒ Google taxis
  • Recording companies ⇒ Itunes
  • Book publishers, agents ⇒ Amazon books and Kindle
  • Automobile manufacturing, distribution, driving, licensing ⇒ 3D printing, Tesla (distribution), Google cars, driver licensing on-line
  • Medical testing labs ⇒ Home testing
  • Big Box merchandizers ⇒ FedEx, UPS, Amazon ⇒ drone delivery
  • Newspapers and Magazines ⇒ Blogs and automatic article writers
  • Manufacturing direct labor ⇒ 3D printing
  • Genome sequencing ⇒ Simple and cheap enough for a high school student
  • Navigation: sextants, maps, inertial, etc. ⇒ GPS on cell phone
  • Medical doctors ⇒ Web programs that are better and diagnosis and treatment
  • Financial Analysts ⇒ Automated Analysis that beats humans
  • High-rise office construction ⇒ offices not needed as workers replaced by automation
  • Airline pilots, fighter pilots, reconnaissance air crews ⇒ drones
  • Electric utilities ⇒ distributed generation
  • Real Estate agents ⇒ Zillow
  • Travel agents ⇒ Travelocity, Expedia, Airline sites
  • Teachers ⇒ Kahn Academy
  • Four-year residential colleges ⇒  90 day coding bootcamps

Get ready. No matter what your job. It’s coming.